). The idea of the book is to cover all of science in 1001 easily digestible topics. Some of them are on obvious subjects - like Newton's laws. Others less so. I was particularly struck by the entry on luck.This asks why some people seem to have an endless supply of luck while others are sadly lacking. Apparently Richard Wiseman, a psychologist at the University of Hertfordshire, has found out that people who rate themselves as lucky are often extroverts, while those who think themselves unlucky are often introverts, whose self-doubt holds them back.
It's certainly true that creativity and getting on in life is, to some extent, a Pygmalion effect. If you believe your ideas are rubbish, you won't tell anyone about them, and you won't try to put them into practice. But I have two problems with the theory as presented.
Firstly, self-doubt and introversion aren't the same thing. It's entirely possible to be introverted and full of confidence in your own ability (the typical geek caricature, for instance). Secondly, though I am convinced by the Pygmalion effect, I think Dr Wiseman has partially got causality back to front. I suspect luck is primarily just that. It's a very common mistake to think that because something is distributed randomly it is distributed evenly. In fact a random thing like luck comes in clusters. You would expect some people to have a lot and some very little. (See my post on clusters.)
So I would expect some people, entirely randomly, to be more lucky than others. (Many entrepreneurs spring to mind.) And after a while, it wouldn't surprise me if those people became more extrovert as a result of their success.
Of course, a one paragraph article can't give the detail of the research, and I suspect Dr Wiseman's conclusion is more complex than 'luck is caused by extroversion' - but it's interesting to ponder.
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